Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.500418 0.580106 0.667677 0.770953 0.889326 1.020665 1.177350
2025-05-18 0.363623 0.470184 0.599688 0.768203 0.981210 1.241001 1.581373
2025-05-25 0.285623 0.399861 0.549183 0.757696 1.040267 1.408677 1.924099
2025-06-01 0.235049 0.351359 0.512763 0.751528 1.093906 1.564965 2.259613
2025-06-08 0.192898 0.305586 0.470438 0.726969 1.113418 1.670531 2.530312
2025-06-15 0.177752 0.296119 0.477359 0.771937 1.234833 1.929237 3.043067
2025-06-22 0.150285 0.262823 0.442867 0.747978 1.247136 2.024797 3.318633
2025-06-29 0.128288 0.234821 0.412402 0.725282 1.256664 2.113995 3.589294
2025-07-06 0.111015 0.212141 0.387350 0.707531 1.270656 2.209269 3.875778
2025-07-13 0.101644 0.202046 0.382256 0.722712 1.340802 2.401828 4.339628
2025-07-20 0.096590 0.199140 0.389312 0.759760 1.452176 2.673271 4.961636
2025-07-27 0.090174 0.192657 0.388835 0.782519 1.539399 2.909356 5.541195
2025-08-03 0.082293 0.182425 0.380493 0.790325 1.601384 3.109019 6.079690
2025-08-10 0.074028 0.170265 0.366955 0.786516 1.640987 3.271668 6.566092
2025-08-17 0.066139 0.157725 0.351002 0.775720 1.665183 3.406572 7.010851
2025-08-24 0.059643 0.147294 0.338060 0.769409 1.697253 3.558675 7.501344
2025-08-31 0.052418 0.134105 0.317509 0.744293 1.687275 3.625813 7.827472
2025-09-07 0.051343 0.135325 0.328881 0.790280 1.832885 4.020359 8.853436
2025-09-14 0.045418 0.123815 0.309921 0.765779 1.822194 4.089900 9.209062
2025-09-21 0.040281 0.113510 0.292454 0.742568 1.811654 4.158144 9.566764
2025-09-28 0.036033 0.104868 0.277879 0.724415 1.810534 4.246080 9.973809
2025-10-05 0.034050 0.102015 0.277211 0.739941 1.889634 4.517514 10.809000
2025-10-12 0.033330 0.102555 0.285184 0.777828 2.025827 4.928527 11.991836